Scotland’s last-32 hopes are still alive, but only just. They finished third in Group C with three points and a goal difference of -3. Now the Tartan Army must hope they are one of the best eight third-placed teams. Opta gives Scotland about a 43% chance, so it’s going to be a nervous wait.
What a journey it’s been for Scotland fans! After waiting so long just to reach a World Cup, Steve Clarke’s side are now stuck in limbo. They’re not quite in the knockout rounds, and not quite out either. Their fate now rests in other teams’ hands.
So how did we get here? And what needs to happen for Scotland to play another game at this tournament? Grab a cup of tea (you might need it), and let’s go through it all.
How Did Scotland’s Group C Campaign Play Out?
Scotland’s World Cup started really well. A tough 1-0 win over Haiti got things off to a dream start and had the Tartan Army dreaming big.
Then things got hard. Against Morocco, Scotland were shocked by Ismael Saibari’s big strike inside the first 70 seconds. They never quite recovered and lost 1-0. That set up a tough final group game against five-time champions Brazil.
That game was a step too far. Vinicius Jr scored twice and Matheus Cunha added a third. Scotland lost 3-0 in Miami. The result left Steve Clarke’s men third in Group C, on three points with a goal difference of -3.
“I think we are going home,” said a gutted Clarke afterwards. Captain John McGinn felt the same: “It’s unlikely now, but we’ll see.” Andy Robertson was honest too: “If you ask me now, I don’t think it is enough. The next couple of days will be horrible.”
How Can Scotland Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Rounds?
This is where the new 48-team format gives Scotland a chance. The top two teams from each of the 12 groups go straight into the last 32. On top of that, the eight best third-placed teams also go through.
That’s the gap Scotland need to slip through. The third-placed sides are ranked first on points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then fair play record, and finally FIFA ranking.
With three points in the bag, Scotland sit sixth in the third-place table right now. Sounds safe, doesn’t it? Not really. Scotland have played all their games, but several rivals have not. A few good results elsewhere could push the Scots out of that vital top eight.
Only Bosnia & Herzegovina (four points) are sure to finish above Scotland. Everything else is still up for grabs.
What Results Do Scotland Need From the Other Groups?
This is the tricky bit. Scotland need a very exact set of results in the remaining final-round games. Here’s the group-by-group guide to what fans should be cheering for.
Group D: Australia to Beat Paraguay by Two Goals
Paraguay sit on three points with a -2 goal difference. If they beat Australia, they go above Scotland. Scotland’s best hope? Australia winning by two clear goals, which would drop Paraguay’s goal difference below -3.
Group E: Germany to Handle Ecuador
Ecuador have just one point and face an in-form Germany side that beat Curaçao 7-1. As long as Ecuador don’t win, they can’t go above Scotland. This one is about as safe as it gets!
Group F: Sweden’s Game Is Mostly Out of Reach
Sweden have three points and a goal difference of zero, which puts them above Scotland. For the Scots to jump them, Sweden would need to lose to Japan by four or more goals. Very unlikely, so don’t pin your hopes here.
Group G: New Zealand to Beat Belgium
Belgium are on two points. A win or even a draw against New Zealand would push them above Scotland. Scotland really need New Zealand to cause an upset and win.
Group H: Saudi Arabia to Beat Cape Verde
Same story as Belgium. Cape Verde have two points, and any good result lifts them above Scotland. The Scots need Saudi Arabia to take all three points.
Group I: Iraq to Deny Senegal
Senegal sit on zero points but could go up to three with a win over Iraq. Their goal difference would likely edge above Scotland’s. The Tartan Army need Iraq to grab a draw, or even better, a win.
Group J: Austria to Beat Algeria by Two Goals
Algeria have three points and a -2 goal difference. As this is the last group to finish, it could be the decider. Scotland need Austria to win by at least two goals to push Algeria’s goal difference below -3.
Group K: DR Congo Not to Win
DR Congo could go up to four points with a win over Uzbekistan. Scotland need them to draw or lose.
Group L: Ghana to Beat Croatia by Three Goals
Croatia are on three points with a -1 goal difference. Only a heavy three-goal defeat to Ghana would drop them below Scotland. It’s a long shot, but stranger things have happened!
Which Teams Are Scotland Relying On?
Scotland’s hopes now depend on several other nations doing them a favour over the final round of group matches.
- Australia
- Germany
- Japan (by four goals or more)
- New Zealand
- Saudi Arabia
- Iraq
- Austria (by two goals or more)
- Uzbekistan or a draw against DR Congo
- Ghana (by three goals or more)
Every goal in those matches could change Scotland’s position in the best third-placed table.
Who Would Scotland Play in the World Cup Last 32?
Now for the fun part, because if Scotland do squeeze through, the draw gets very interesting indeed.
As Group C’s third-placed team, Scotland would face Mexico, the Group A winners and tournament co-hosts, in the last 32 on 30 June. A tough tie against a passionate home crowd, but a brilliant occasion all the same.
Win that, and a mouthwatering match awaits. Scotland and England could meet in the round of 16 in Mexico City on 6 July, as long as both win their last-32 games first. Can you imagine the buzz around that one?
Looking even further ahead, the quarter-finals could bring a rematch with Brazil, or games against the likes of Japan, Ivory Coast, or Norway. There’s a long way to go before any of that happens, but a Scot can dream!
What Are Scotland’s Chances of Reaching the Knockout Stage?
Opta currently gives Scotland around a 43% chance of progressing to the last 32. That reflects just how finely balanced the race for the best third-placed spots has become.
The Scots have done all they can. Now they must sit back and hope enough results across the remaining groups go their way.
The Nervous Wait Begins
So there you have it. Scotland’s World Cup story isn’t over just yet, but it’s hanging by the finest of threads. Steve Clarke’s side have done their bit. Now they can only sit back and hope the football gods are kind over the coming days.
The maths is unforgiving, and several results need to fall just right. But football has a funny way of surprising us, and stranger qualifications have happened before. Keep an eye on those final group games, because every goal in groups D through L could decide whether Scotland’s adventure goes on.
Fingers crossed, Tartan Army. It’s going to be a tense few days!
FAQs
Scotland need to finish as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the 12 groups. They have three points with a -3 goal difference, so they need results in other groups to stop their rivals climbing above them.
Data provider Opta gives Scotland about a 43% chance of going through as one of the best third-placed teams. It’s far from certain, but the door is still open.
Scotland would face Mexico, the Group A winners and co-hosts, in the last 32 on 30 June. A possible round of 16 clash with England could follow on 6 July if both teams win their first knockout ties.
Because several third-placed teams are level on points, goal difference is the key tiebreaker. Scotland’s -3 leaves them at risk, which is why they need rivals like Algeria, Paraguay, and Croatia to suffer heavy defeats.
No Comments